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CIS billet suppliers hope to wait till better times come - 08 Feb 11

CIS exporters of square billet are still in a fix. Buying activity has been paralyzed almost in all sales markets, while scrap quotations continue to slide. Middle Eastern consumers are still in a wait-and-see mode, expecting a downturn, while most Asian buyers are out of the market due to holidays. Suppliers, having sold February output in late December-early January, are in no hurry to offer March casting. Despite pressure from customers, they are not going to back down, hoping to wait till better times come.
However, traders are sceptical about steelmakers’ plans to keep prices for semis from falling amid events in the Mediterranean region. Thus, unstable political situation in Egypt has already made Turkish exporters withdraw their offers in hope to sell their material at reduced prices elsewhere. As a result, quotations of Turkish billet have gone down by $15-20/t in a week, to $640-645/t FOB. Obviously, this is not the bottom level, as some suppliers are ready to discount another $5-10/t.
For the third week in a row, only traders have been active in the Azov-Black Sea basin, offering the billet, bought earlier, at $620-630/t FOB, unchanged w-o-w. However, demand for their material is close to zero. Most Middle Eastern buyers refuse to buy semis at too high prices, seeing domestic demand for longs has fallen. Meanwhile, a small lot of Ukrainian billet has been reportedly shipped to the south of Iran at $620/t FOB.
Offers of semis from Belarus SW (March production) are expected no sooner than on February 7: traders estimate the initial price will be $650/t FOB.
Taking into account unfavorable situation in the Middle East, some suppliers have switched to EU customers. In particular, Ukraine’s Metinvest International S.A., having signed a number of contracts for supply of February casting to Latvia’s Liepajas Metalurgs, has offered its March production at $640-650/t DAP Horobichi. However, no customers are ready to buy the material at new prices.       
In the Caspian region CIS billet suppliers have also been trying to get the most out of trade amid critically low buying activity. Despite a lack of demand, traders have been trying to keep their prices up for the second week in a row, waiting for Iranian customers to become active by the end of the month.
Kazakhstan’s Casting is reportedly offering “February” billet at $630/t CPT ($640/t FOB) Aktau and has managed to sell some of the material this week. Quotations from Ural Steel have been unchanged from $650/t FOB; however, no deals are reported.
Amid holiday period in SE Asia, distributors of Russian billet are not hurrying to offer March output. Besides, exports will be limited on high consumption in the Russian domestic market. In particular, Evraz Holding is reportedly planning to ship no more than 20,000 t of March casting to SE Asia.
Taking into account the level at which latest deals for Russian material were made and bids from Asian buyers before the holidays, nominal price for billet is $645-665/t FOB. In view of an upward trend reversal in the scrap segment, semis quotations may move down as well. Steelmakers are sure further developments will depend on demand, which they expect will improve after the holidays.
( Source: www.metalexper-group.com )
Feb 8, 2011 10:19
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