According to Mr Song Jijun vice chairman of Hebei metallurgical industry association the first half of this year is regarded as the hardest period of steel development as well as the most important time for steel industry to run into stable operation with state stimulating policies take effects. It"s expected that China steel industry is likely to recover in later this year or early next year, boosted by the actualization of national policies.
Mr Song thinks there are 3 tendencies in general, which merit attention and help to assess this year"s steel movements.
1. Financial crisis hasn"t touched the bottom, implying that further pressure will weigh on the real economy, and serious results will appear in future. Under this situation, the international economy will come into the correction period, so will China"s industries. China is expected to continue the recurrent winter in economic development.
2. China"s micro-control policies show that this year is the key phase to prevent economy from sliding, the start-up moment to stimulate domestic demands and the time when China will do its best to shorten the economy winter.
3. Steel price will gradually recover while the overcapacity becomes more obvious in this year; the forecast can be seen from recent trends in steel industry. So, this year will eye big changes in market structure and competitive system. And companies have to meet with the changes with strategic transformation and optimizing structure.
All in all, Song concludes we should be confident but more cautious about the steel industrial trends in this year.