According to Fitch Ratings special report published on February 4th 2009, following a period of sustained strong revenue growth, Latin American metals and mining companies face more than a 50% drop in their EBITDA during 2009.
Following periods of high demand and high prices which peaked in mid 2008, these companies amassed strong cash positions on their balance sheets and are well positioned entering the downturn.
Mr Jay Djemal, associate director and lead author of the report said that “The next 12 months will prove difficult for these companies. Leverage and interest covenants may be breached by some Latin American metal and mining companies as a result of the tightening cash flows due to the subdued demand and low metal prices. But very strong cash positions mean it is unlikely that any of the big players will default on their debt obligations.”
The report noted that many companies has announced delays in their capital expenditure projects and have reduced their production levels in response to this cash flow pressure to reflect the economic reality of demand. In addition, these companies have reduced their workforce or negotiated with unions to place employees on partially paid leave, while also temporarily closing mills and mines. Tight controls on working capital have also been imposed.
The median cash and short term debt coverage ratio for the group of the Fitch rated Latin American metals and mining companies as of the last twelve months ending September 30th 2008 was 1.6 times, a fall from the 2.5x peak seen in 2006. Median short term debt for the same period accounted for just 21% of total debt, with the majority of large amortizations not being due until after 24 months.
The companies listed in the report include: CAP SA, CSN, Gerdau, Vale, Samarco, Usiminas, Siderar, Sidetur, Ternium Mexico, Codelco, Southern Copper Corporation, Minera Escondida, Molymet, Alcoa Aluminium and Clarendon Alumina Production Limited.