Trump is pursuing Ukraine’s rare earth and critical minerals to strengthen its leverage in curbing China’s exports. However, it could be a long-term process for the US to end its reliance on China.
US President Donald Trump is seeking $500 billion (€477 billion) worth of Ukraine’s rare earth and critical minerals in negotiating a peace deal, to compensate US military aid to Ukraine during the war. More importantly, securing these resources aligns with his strategic plan to rebalance the US’s global trade position, particularly against China. However, peace talks remain at a stalemate as the US decided to pause all military aid to Ukraine after a blowout conversation between Trump and Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy.
Trump has been dedicated to “making America great again” since his first term, targeting China with tariffs to protect the domestic manufacturing sector. However, given China’s long-established supply chain system and manufacturing infrastructure, the US faces challenges in overturning trade relations, particularly the reliance on China’s supply of critical minerals for its high-tech industry. This makes the peace talks a crucial turning point in Trump’s tariff plan for whether he will be able to escalate measures against China’s exports.
How much does the US reply on China’s critical minerals?
The US president has doubled the import levies on Chinese goods to 20%, while he is proceeding with the 25% duty on the two largest trading partners today. Some may be wondering why Trump has not hit China with more aggressive tariffs like what he does to Mexico and Canada.
The US heavily relies on China’s supply of critical minerals, which are vital resources for making electric devices, battery-powered cars, aircrafts, and defence equipment. According to TD Economics, China dominates the global production of more than half of the 50 critical minerals outlined by the US government in 2022. Additionally, it holds a near-monopoly in refining capabilities, processing 90% of rare earth elements. From 2020 to 2023, Washington imported 70% of its rare earth metals from China, according to multiple sources. This makes securing an alternative source from Ukraine a key component of Trump’s strategic plan.
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In December of 2024, China enacted an export ban and restrictions on several critical minerals to the US, following the US’s fresh curbs on chip exports to China one day earlier. Beijing halted exports of antimony, gallium, germanium, and super hard materials, and tightened rules for shipping graphite products to Washington. Gallium is a reliable and durable element used in the defence industry, while graphite is essential for making electric vehicles and nuclear reactors.
How could a Ukraine mineral deal benefit the US?
A Ukrainian Geological Survey state agency estimates approximately 5% of the world’s critical raw materials are located in Ukraine, including millions of tonnes of reserves of graphite, a third of European lithium deposits, and 7% of Europe’s titanium supplies. The country also holds significant reserves of critical metals, such as copper, zinc, silver, nickel, and cobalt. Rare earth metal that comprises 17 elements has also been found in Ukraine.
However, Russia may have occupied some major sites of Ukrainian mines and rare earth deposits since the war started in 2022. Additionally, the lack of investment in Ukraine may prevent the country from producing the output Trump envisions, particularly in terms of refining capabilities. Industry experts also question whether Ukraine truly possesses the rare earth reserves Trump expects.
According to Argus Media, an independent energy and commodity research firm, global rare earth estimates range between $4 billion (€3.8 billion) and $12.5 billion (€12 billion). This makes the $500 billion (€477 billion) valuation of Ukraine’s mineral reserves hard to justify.
Euronews