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U.S. Gas Prices Surge On Strong LNG Demand

U.S. natural gas futures climbed to $3.7/MMBtu, the highest in three weeks, driven by lower output, rising LNG exports and colder weather forecasts. Gas flows to the eight major U.S. LNG export plants averaged 15.3 bcfd so far in February, up from 14.6 bcfd in January, close to record levels. Daily LNG feedgas hit 15.9 bcfd on Thursday, surpassing the previous high of 15.8 bcfd on January 18. Meanwhile, extreme cold froze some wells, causing daily gas output to drop by 3.7 bcfd over the past week to a two-week low of 103.0 bcfd. Weather forecasts indicate colder-than-normal temperatures through February 22, boosting heating demand. Additionally, the EIA reported that U.S. utilities withdrew 100 bcf of natural gas from storage in the week ending February 7, bringing total inventories down to 2,297 bcf, more than the expected 92 bcf draw.
Meanwhile, European natural gas futures pulled back below €51 per megawatt-hour on Thursday from a two-year high of 58.039 per megawatt-hour (MWh) they hit on 10 February driven by milder weather forecasts that are expected to reduce heating demand.EU inventories stood at 56.95 billion cubic metres (bcm) on 9 February according to Gas Infrastructure Europe (GIE) data, 21.45 bcm lower y/y and 8.09 bcm below the five-year average. The w/w draw to 9 February was 4.9 bcm, 37% higher than the five-year average (3.58 bcm) and almost twice the draw for the same period last year (2.5 bcm). Cessation of Russian gas transit through Ukraine accounted for the bulk of the m/m reduction (1.47 bcm), although a 0.824 bcm m/m fall in flows from Norway also played a significant role.
Excluding transit flows, EU imports of Russian pipeline gas totaled just 1.362 bcm in January 2025, 90% lower than in January 2021. Commodity analysts at Standard Chartered have projected that If temperatures for the rest of the northern hemisphere winter were to normalize, inventories would finish March at close to 44 bcm, while a continuation of the recent larger-than-usual draws would result in an end-season inventory level of 39.1 bcm. The latter forecast for the end-season minimum would be 29 bcm less than last year’s number, but ~10 bcm higher than in 2022 in the immediate wake of Russia’s invasion of eastern Ukraine.
By Alex Kimani for Oilprice.com

Feb 22, 2025 11:12
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