Oil prices have fallen for the second consecutive week, but a major bullish catalyst may be looming in early February.
Oil prices are set to finish this week some $2 per barrel lower than a week ago as the January ICE Brent futures contract expires just below $77 per barrel. However, the second straight weekly decline could be cut short very quickly if Donald Trump’s February 1 deadline for Canada and Mexico leads to the US slapping punitive 25% sanctions. If the threat does become a reality, the oil bulls will not stop until Brent is back above $80 per barrel.
Former IEA Employees Turn Against It. Just as the International Energy Agency came under severe criticism from Donald Trump due to its marked focus on climate change, a new report penned by the IEA’s former head of analysis identified 23 false assumptions in the organization’s peak-demand scenarios.
Investments into Clean Energy Hit New Record. According to BloombergNEF, global investment in low-carbon energy reached $2.1 trillion for the first time on record in 2024, but the 11% year-over-year growth is slower than 25% previously and only 37% of what is required to meet net zero emissions by 2050.
Coffee Is The New Cocoa of 2025. Prices of arabica coffee continued to hit record highs this week as front-month ICE futures hit $3.74 per pound on Thursday, on the back of drought-hit tight supplies from Brazil and low coffee bean inventories from top roasters such as Nestle (SWX:NESN) or JDE Peet’s.
UK Says No to Oil Development. The Scottish Court of Sessions ruled that government approval for the Rosebank oil field and Jackdaw gas field was unlawful as it did not take into consideration Scope 3 emissions, indefinitely blocking the United Kingdom’s two largest oil and gas projects.
Ukraine Claims Huge Hit on Russian Refinery. Ukraine’s military struck Russia’s fourth largest refinery in Nizhny Novgorod in an overnight drone attack, causing a large fire and halting operations at the 340,000 b/d refinery’s integrated petrochemical plant, allegedly also attempting a drone strike on a nuclear reactor.
Japan Eyes Alaska LNG to Appease Trump. Japan is mulling support for the $44 billion Alaska LNG project in order to forestall potential trade friction with the United States, eyeing liquefied gas supplies from the port of Nikiski that would be connected to gas fields in the north of Alaska via an 800-mile pipeline.
Appetite for Wind Energy Has Never Been Thinner. UK-based energy major Shell (LON:SHEL) reported a $1 billion write-down on its sole remaining offshore wind energy venture, the Atlantic Shores project jointly developed with EDF Renewables, eyeing 2.8 GW of generation capacity in offshore New Jersey.
Iraq Claims Huge Flaring Breakthrough. Historically one of the worst flarers globally, Iraq claims to have cut the amount of natural gas it releases by 70% after partnering with TotalEnergies and Baker Hughes, with 2023 flare volumes as high as 637 BCf and almost identical to the country’s gas consumption.
Trump Cabinet Moves to Repeal Biden Fuel Standards. The new US Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy directed US regulators to rescind President Biden’s landmark fuel economy standards, hiking CAFE requirements for light-duty vehicles to 50.4 miles per gallon by 2031 from 39.1 miles per gallon now.
Kazakhstan Sticks to OPEC+ Balancing Act. Under pressure from Chevron (NYSE:CVX) ramping up production at its giant Tengiz field to 800,000 b/d, the government of Kazakhstan claimed it would make a final decision on OPEC+ production cut compliance after the next joint OPEC+ meeting in June.
US Oil Majors Double Down on Gas Generation. US oil major Chevron (NYSE:CVX) announced it plans to build natural gas-fuelled power plants next to data centers in the US Southeast, Midwest and East, partnering with investment firm Engine 1 and using gas turbines made by GE Vernova (NYSE:GEV).
Norway’s Government Collapses over Clean Energy. Norway’s government has collapsed after the ruling Labour Party pushed to implement EU clean energy directives, only to see the Centre Party pull out of the coalition and 8 out of 20 government ministers resign, including the finance and defense ministers.
Calcasieu Pass LNG to Start in March. According to US energy regulator FERC, the remaining construction work at Venture Global’s (NYSE:VG) 12.4 mtpa Calcasieu Pass LNG facility will be finalized by the end of February, paving the way for a full start of operations after a two-year regulatory limbo.
By Charles Kennedy for Oilprice.com