China aims to maintain crude production in 2025 little changed from 2024, with output expected to come in above 200 million tons. In 2024, China's total oil and gas output exceeded 400 million tons of oil equivalent for the first time, the National Energy Administration (NEA) has revealed. China’s crude production clocked in at 213 million tons (4.9 million barrels per day), while natural gas production was 246.4 billion cubic meters (bcm).
India’s oil demand growth exceeded China’s for the first time in 2024, and is expected to do so again in 2025. According to Kang Wu, global head of macro and oil demand research at SPGCI, India’s oil demand grew by 180,000 barrels per day in 2024, surpassing China’s growth clip at 148,000 bpd. India’s oil demand is expected to increase by 3.2% Y/Y in 2025 compared to 1.7% by China.
Over the past couple of decades, China has carried the lion’s share of global oil demand growth thanks to the country’s remarkable economic boom. However, that is beginning to change. The factors that helped sustain China’s rapid growth since the global financial crisis are unlikely to be replicated in the next decade, particularly in sectors of property construction and local government investment. Indeed, China’s economic slowdown has mainly manifested in the property sector’s decline, hardly surprising considering that the industry represented 20 to 25 percent of GDP at its peak.
China’s booming electric vehicle sector is also displacing a significant chunk of oil demand. The country’s 10 millionth EV rolled off the production line in November, beating the 2023 production seven weeks before the year’s end. Chinese EV makers delivered 9.75 million units to mainland buyers between January and October, good for a robust 34% Y/Y increase. Helped by government subsidies of up to $2,800 apiece for trading in older cars for EVs as well as more fuel-efficient cars, China Passenger Car Association (CPCA) secretary-general Cui Dongshu has predicted that China’s EV revolution will continue undeterred by a faltering economy. Sales of new energy vehicles (NEVs) in China overtook conventional auto sales for the first time ever in July, and now account for more than half of all units sold during the month.
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By Alex Kimani for Oilprice.com