The U.S. population will age and continue to see low growth in 2025, three experts have told Newsweek.
Population decline is an issue for many countries around the world, especially in Europe, and, while the U.S. is not technically one of them, its growth is slow.
Last year, the population only increased by 0.5 percent, according to the U.S. Census Bureau. While this is the most significant uptick since the Covid pandemic, "national population growth is still historically low," the Bureau concluded, and 2025 is not expected to be much different, experts said.
"Next year will be much like this year, but with slightly more moderation from the recent pandemic disruptions," Dowell Myers, a professor of policy, planning and demography at the University of Southern California, told Newsweek. "We know all the residents will be one year older—baby boomers moving deeper into retirement and still holding on to their houses, while most of the millennials spill across the 30-year age threshold, after which fertility can't be delayed much further and when intentions for homeownership are strengthening even more."
Newsweek previously reported on how and why fewer Gen Zers and millennials are having children.
Similarly, the Population Reference Bureau's senior program director, Beth Jarosz, said: "Next year the country will be a bit older, the total number of births will be a bit lower, and people will still have trouble finding housing that meets their needs."
William Frey, a demographer and senior fellow at The Brookings Institution, also said he thinks there will be "low population growth" in 2025, "with immigration accounting for most of the growth."
Immigration 'Vital for Population Growth'
Frey said immigration is "vital for population growth and reduced aging," citing his 2023 report, which concluded: "In a future of decreasing births and increasing deaths across an already aging population, immigration levels are crucial in leading to national growth as opposed to decline, and countering what would otherwise be extreme aging."
Myers and Jarosz made the same point, with Jarosz stressing the possible "ripple effects" of Donald Trump's pledge to carry out mass deportations.
The president-elect has promised to deport undocumented migrants multiple times, most recently in his first post-election interview on Meet the Press on December 8, when he said: "I think you have to do it. It's a very tough thing to do. It's—but you have to have, you know, you have rules, regulations, laws. They came in illegally."
"We're starting with the criminals, and we got to do it," he added, "And then we're starting with others, and we're going to see how it goes."
Jarosz said: "If those occur, that will have ripple effects across the population and labor force. Deportations would disproportionately affect some communities—including those that have a lot of jobs in construction and agriculture."
In response to these comments, Karoline Leavitt, the spokesperson for the Trump-Vance transition team, said: "President Trump will enlist every federal power and coordinate with state authorities to institute the largest deportation operation of illegal criminals, drug dealers, and human traffickers in American history while simultaneously lowering costs for families and strengthening our workforce.
"The American people re-elected President Trump by a resounding margin giving him a mandate to implement the promises he made on the campaign trail, like deporting migrant criminals and restoring our economic greatness. He will deliver."
Newsweek