President-elect Donald Trump has promised from day one to build on the tariffs introduced during his first term in the White House, threatening a new wave of levies on imports from America's trading partners unless they meet various demands.
For example, Trump said he would impose tough new tariffs on Canada and Mexico unless both countries do more to tackle the flow of undocumented migrants and drugs over their borders with the U.S.
But tariffs are a complex tool with costs and benefits to both sides. With that in mind, Newsweek asked economists who the biggest winners and losers will be from Trump's tariffs. Here's what they told us.
Alan S. Blinder, Gordon S. Rentschler Memorial Professor of Economics and Public Affairs, Princeton University; Former Vice Chairman of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Tariffs are designed to—and do—benefit domestic firms who can hide behind the tariff barriers, raise prices, and make greater profits. The losers, of course, are the domestic businesses and consumers who must pay more for the foreign items they buy.
Jeffrey Frankel, James W. Harpel Professor of Capital Formation and Growth, Harvard Kennedy School; Ex-Member U.S. President's Council of Economic Advisers
The biggest losers from higher U.S. tariffs, aside from foreign countries: Consumers, U.S. firms that buy imported inputs like steel, and U.S. exporters like soybean farmers.
There will not be many winners.
Perhaps some in the housing sector will gain from higher inflation. Of the firms that import inputs like steel, some with good government connections will benefit from tailored exemptions to the tariffs, at the expense of other firms.
Gene M. Grossman, Jacob Viner Professor of International Economics, Department of Economics and Princeton School of Public and International Affairs, Princeton University
Biggest winners: Manufacturing workers and firms that compete with China, in industries like toys, furniture, appliances. Losers: Consumers of these goods, as well as firms that rely on Chinese inputs in complex global supply chains.
Kyle Handley, Associate Professor of Economics and Director, Center for Commerce and Diplomacy, Rafael and Marina Pastor Endowed Fellow, School of Global Policy & Strategy, UC San Diego
There will be concentrated gains to specific companies and industries that compete with imports. They will face less competition and increase their prices and market share.
Consumers should take note that most of the products in Cyber Monday shopping carts are imported. Many products are nominally "made in the USA" and include imported content and parts.
The biggest losers will be industries like autos, aircraft, and other transport equipment that use a large share of imported inputs to build things
Across the board tariffs, in particular, would be a major cost shock. We would see the adjustment in terms of lower profits, wages, jobs, or all of the above long before businesses make the costly decision to reshore any production.
Robert Z. Lawrence, Albert L. Williams Professor of International Trade and Investment, Harvard Kennedy School; Senior Fellow, Peterson Institute for International Economics; Ex-Member of U.S. President's Council of Economic Advisers
Winners: Countries who make good similar to those produced by China. Domestic firms who make goods similar to the imports being protected. Firms relocating to the U.S.
Losers: Consumers, especially those who buy imports and domestic products similar to imports. Exporters because the dollar will be stronger and foreigners will retaliate. Domestic firms that use imports as inputs.
Newsweek