Billet: Billet price remained stable. Limited supply coupled with latest forward
contract deliveries kept the
market in check, power cuts do not let any change in supply and demand level.
Long Products
Rebar: Rebar price did not change due to limited
production and empty warehouses. Market is in waiting mood.
I-beam: Supply control did not
allow I-beam price reduction.
Flat Products
HRC: HRC market has reached the bottom level and its demand is scarce as there
is power shortage.
HRP: Despite limited supply, HRP demand did not have the power to
change its market.
CRC: Like other products, power cuts and weak demand caused CRC price to drop.
HDG: Although HRC price was decreasing, limited change in currency
price and limited supply of some items shook HRP market a little.
Weekly Analysis:
In the world market: World market does not show any serious signs of change, price
of iron ore improved a little, as well as scrap, but this improvement is due to
the fact that prices had reached their bottom and had to return, but the
increase was limited. The war in Gaza has spread to the West Bank and the
world, tired of Israel's crimes, has left the region alone so that Israel may
sink into the swamp it has created. China's economic growth is on a downward trend, Chinese
steel makers are looking to reduce production after dumping their inventories,
the world is waiting for what will happen either in Ukraine or the Middle East.
In the domestic market: Power cuts has greatly exhausted supply and demand, and
production is the biggest victim. If there is an increase
in electricity production, it will take at least three years to improve. In three years, the need will increase by at least ten
percent every year, during this period, the power plants, which are at the end
of their life, will reduce their capacity or need to be repaired and
overhauled, as a result, the condition will be worse next year.
But in the steel market, if power supply
returns to normal, mills will start buying billet, demand for billet will
increase the need for DRI and pellet, followed by concentrates and iron ore. Price
of rebar will react quickly due to the elasticity of its supply and demand . But in the mining sector, this elasticity does not
exist, and naturally, prices will not simply go down.
One thing should not be forgotten and that is
the pressure of producers to export to make up for their backwardness. The need for currency also helps in this matter. Another factor is the gas problem, which will occur from
November and will disrupt electricity and DRI production again.
The problem of Iran's economy is not the
sanctions, but the management of the economy.
The picture for the next three months is
stability or a limited decrease in the price of rebar and billet and an
increase in the price of DRI, pellet and concentrate. After that, if the gas
problem is not managed, the problem of price increase in rebar and billet will
be seen. For now, we should pray that the currency does not change.
CBI
average ex-rate for Steel Products (SANA): Rials 451,823/ 1USD
03 Sep 2024
M.Chitsaz
Iran Steel News
Bulletin
IFNAA.IR
IRSTEEL.COM