Two decades ago, China pioneered the so-called “Angola model” wherein it provided oil-backed loans from China to Angola and other African cuntries to finance the building of roads, hydroelectric dams, railways, and other infrastructural projects. Between 2000 and 2022, Angola borrowed $45 billion from China, repaying some of it in oil.
Unfortunately, that model did not last very long, with the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace noting that Angola has slipped to the 8th largest crude supplier to China, down from second in 2010. Aging oilfields, years of underinvestment, poor infrastructure and geopolitical instability have been the bane of larger producers including Angola and Nigeria, but also smaller producers such as South Sudan.
China has moved on, and is pivoting heavily to countries with more reliable infrastructure including Russia, Saudi Arabia, UAE, Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman and Qatar.
And now other countries are looking to step in and fill the gaping hole left by China and the West’s waning influence over the “final frontier”. Russia’s growing footprint on the continent has become evident over the past couple of years as many African governments have increasingly welcomed economic, diplomatic, and security ties with Russia at a time when the West considers it an international pariah following its war in Ukraine.
Not surprisingly, one of Russia’s closest allies in Europe is also finding a welcome home in Africa: Turkey. Looking to extend its influence in Africa and strengthen energy security, Turkey will send the 86-meter long research vessel Oruc Reis to explore offshore oil blocks belonging to Somalia next month, Bloomberg has reported. The move could help diversify Turkey’s crude supply and is part of Ankara’s steady quest to boost ties in the huge continent.
“Africa is interesting for Turkey because it’s a point where it can experiment with all its newfound activist foreign policy tools and objectives,” Batu Co?kun, an Ankara-based research fellow at the Libyan Sadeq Institute think tank, has told Bloomberg. “It’s soft power on the one hand, such as aid, education and Turkish language centers. And trade and economic relations on the other hand,” he added.
Turkey has already established a strong presence in war-weary Somalia where it operates its largest overseas military base while Turkish companies manage the capital’s port and airport. Turkish drone company Baykar has supplied Somalia with an unknown number of its TB2 drone model, expanding the country’s offensive against the Islamist group al-Shabaab. Earlier in the year, the Turkish parliament approved a motion from President Erdogan to send navy support to Somali waters amid an increase in piracy linked to insecurity in the Red Sea.
“For Turkey, Somalia offers a geo-strategic location to advance its influence in the Horn of Africa and Indian Ocean arenas. The engagement with Somalia has served both a test case and a stepping stone for Turkey’s overall strategy to deepen diplomatic, commercial and security ties across the African continent,”Omar Mahmood, a senior analyst for East Africa for the International Crisis Group, has told Bloomberg.
According to the Turkish Foreign Ministry, over the past decade, Turkey has provided Somalia with over $1B in aid. While that might not seem like much, consider that Somalia is one of the world’s poorest nations on the planet, with a GDP of just over $10B.
That said, Somalia is merely a launching pad for Turkey as it looks to spread its influence in the continent. Earlier in the year, a delegation led by Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan visited Niger and signed a host of deals after the nation’s military government ordered the U.S. to close its military base and kicked out French troops. Niger has just resumed oil exports after it reached an agreement with neighboring Benin following a recent border dispute. Niger stopped crude shipments in June after the West African nation closed a pipeline operated by China National Petroleum Corp. that links the Agadem oil field to the Sèmè Kpodji terminal in Benin.
“We’ve reached an agreement. Loading of crude started this morning,” Benin Energy Minister Samou Adambi told reporters on Monday. With Prime Minister Ali Lamine Zeine’s office confirming the resumption of shipments.
Niger relies on the 1,950 km-long Niger-Benin Export Pipeline, built by CNPC as part of a $4.6 billion investment in the country’s petroleum industry, to repay a $400 million oil-for-cash loan from the Chinese company. Niger plans to use revenue generated by oil shipments to repay the loan. The landmark 110,000 b/d Niger-Benin pipeline will increase Niger’s crude production five-fold and make the country a significant exporter. Prior to the construction of the pipeline, landlocked Niger produced just 20,000 b/d of crude from its Agadem Rift Basin, which it primarily used domestically due to a lack of an export route.
Turkish mining company MTA is exploring for gold in Niger. Turkey has held talks with Algeria, the Ivory Coast and Zimbabwe in the past three months. Meanwhile, Afro Turk SA has made efforts to enter Burkina Faso’s gold market while Turkish Airlines now flies to dozens of remote locations on the continent.
Turkey has been able to make rapid inroads into Africa thanks in large part to the centralized leadership style of Erdogan.
“If Erdogan signs off on the deal it simply goes through. It’s not like the US congress which scrutinizes every sale,” Co?kun has told Bloomberg.
By Alex Kimani for Oilprice.com