U.S. oil production growth is slowing down in response to lower international prices. The trend will likely extend in evidence that the shale industry is at a new stage in its evolution. The days of a million-bpd annual growth rate may be over—unless prices rise.
In its latest Short-Term Energy Outlook, the Energy Information Administration reported an estimated production rate for this year of 13.2 million barrels daily. That's up from 12.9 million barrels daily last year, which is already a revision on earlier estimates about production growth in 2023—and it's a downward revision.
The EIA's outlook for the immediate future is quite measured, too, with the agency expecting the 2025 average at 13.7 million barrels, barely 500,000 bpd above this year's average. Of course, these are simply estimates, and a lot could change if the price changes. Besides, half a million barrels daily in production growth is not too shabby and would be an acceleration of the 2023/2024 growth rate—if the price is right.
The first stage of the shale industry's evolution is over. That's the age of "Drill, baby, drill" when nothing mattered but trying to see just how much oil you could get out of the ground, expenses be damned. That was the age of the massive debt piles, the cash-burning, and the increasingly grumpy shareholders.
The 2020 pandemic lockdowns and the oil demand devastation they wreaked on the industry gave it a much-needed reality check and prompted a rearrangement of priorities, which has remained unchanged since then. Because of that reprioritization, production is growing more slowly, notably in the shale patch.
In May, per EIA data, shale oil production in the United States grew to 11 million barrels daily, from 10.6 million barrels daily a year earlier. Reuters' John Kemp noted in a column that this was the smallest since the pandemic lockdowns and compared it to the growth of 800,000 bpd to 1 million bpd recorded in the shale patch in early 2023.
Kemp also noted that the slowdown in production growth lags the downward trend in prices by several months, as is characteristic of the industry. Yet there were signs of a coming slowdown earlier in the year as well. It's not that shale drillers decided to start curbing growth in mid-July.
In April, the EIA reported that the number of drilled but uncompleted wells, the so-called DUCs, had gone up for the first time in a year in March. The increase wasn't stunning or anything, at just nine new drilled but unfracked wells, for a total count of 4,522. But it did suggest drillers were not putting everything they have into production growth—despite WTI prices moving closer to $90 per barrel at the time.
Now, WTI is barely above $75, which is a considerably lower price levels, especially for shale drillers. Yes, costs have fallen thanks to efficiency gains and the consolidation drive that has forced oilfield service providers to discount their services, but they are still considerable. And there's the whole thing with the new priorities that put shareholder returns first, which means spending plans are being devised with that in mind rather than production volumes.
With prices where they are and little chance of that changing except in case of a major Middle Eastern war, the slowdown trend in U.S. shale will likely extend into the rest of the year. Lower international prices, high domestic costs, and shareholder happiness will all play a part in that. Just how meaningful the slowdown would be, however, is another question, and that's where those efficiency gains and consolidation benefits would come in.
By Irina Slav for Oilprice.com