Congo, Rwanda and Uganda are engaging in perilous saber-rattling and skirmishes
As world leaders scramble to avert a full-scale war between Israel and Hezbollah, there is another conflict on a scale perhaps unimaginable to many they should rush to prevent as well.
It is a repeat, like Israel-Hezbollah in 2006, of a war that raged between the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Rwanda and Uganda between August 1998 and July 2003. By the time it ended, nine African countries and 20 rebel groups were involved. At least 5.4 million people died as a result of fighting, disease and malnutrition and 7 million were displaced. Africa’s World War — or the Great War of Africa, as it came to be known — was the world’s deadliest conflict since World War II.
Today, conflict between Congolese and Rwandan leaders has sharpened dangerously, peace initiatives have collapsed, an arms race is underway and deadly clashes between both sides and militias aligned to them are frequent. All the warning lights for a repeat of the 1998-2003 war are flashing.
Tensions have been simmering for years, with frequent reports of serious cross-border clashes in the eastern provinces of Congo. War talk and violence ramped up in the run-up to the Congolese election in December and have intensified over the past seven months. Weeks before the poll, Congolese President Felix Tshisekedi said Rwandan President Paul Kagame was behaving like Adolf Hitler and had ambitions to expand Rwanda into eastern Congo.
"I promise he will end up like Hitler,” Tshisekedi warned. Rwanda said the Congolese president’s words were a "loud and clear threat."
On July 9, a United Nations expert report confirmed widely circulated accusations that Uganda and Rwanda are backing the powerful M23 rebel group in eastern Congo. The report warned that the crisis "carried the risk of triggering a wider regional conflict." Rwandan government spokesperson Yolande Makolo responded that Tshisekedi had "consistently threatened to declare war on Rwanda" and that her country "will continue to defend itself."
The reasons for the fighting are decades-old and complex, yet currently boil down to various players’ bid to dominate Congo’s abundant mineral resources.
After the 1994 Rwandan genocide, in which 1 million ethnic Tutsi were killed by mainly Hutu ethnic groups, militias implicated in the murders fled into eastern Congo. The Rwandan army pursued them, arguing that it had to arrest perpetrators of the genocide and destroy their networks. This happened again in 1998, triggering the great war and spawning a web of vested interests involving neighboring nations and armed militias, mercenaries, mining companies, local and regional politicians, China, the United States and other global powers seeking a toehold in the region. Large parts of Congo have since been occupied by ruthless armed groups profiting from illegal mining.
The country produces nearly 70% of the world’s cobalt, while the Great Lakes region that Congo is a part of is rich with tin, tantalum, tungsten, lithium and gold — all of which are key components of electric vehicle batteries, cell phones, refrigerators, jewelry, airplane parts, cars and other goods. As of 2020, Chinese firms owned or had stakes in 15 of the 19 cobalt producing mines in Congo. Between 2022 and 2050, demand for nickel will double, cobalt will triple and lithium rise tenfold, according to the International Energy Agency.
A conflagration will potentially affect or draw in other countries. Apart from Congo, Rwanda, Uganda and Burundi, a plethora of armed groups is already in the region. The 11,000-strong U.N. peacekeeping mission (which goes by the French acronym MONUSCO) was supposed to leave the country by year-end, but has been asked by the Congolese government to stay on indefinitely.
South Africa, Malawi and Tanzania already have troops in Congo as part of the Southern African Development Community’s peacekeeping mission deployed there last December. Congo’s neighbors Angola, the Republic of Congo, Tanzania, Kenya and Zambia could be pulled into the fighting. An East African Community Regional Force exited Congo in December and may be drawn back in.
That’s not all. The Global Center for the Responsibility to Protect, a nongovernmental organization, says that there are at least 120 armed militias operating in the region, while mercenaries such as those of Russia’s Wagner Group have been contracted by various players. And worryingly, Congo has been stocking up on arms. The country’s military spending experienced the highest increase in the world last year, according to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute. Spending on armored vehicles, drones and other military equipment more than doubled in a year to $794 million.
The 1998-2003 conflict ended because strong continental leaders intervened through dialogue. In 2000, African leaders adopted the Lome Declaration that expressly outlawed coups, thus giving the African Union the authority to stand up to belligerents.
The current political climate, called "an epidemic” of coups by U.N. Secretary-General Antonio Guterres, makes it harder to intervene. Continental leadership of the type of the early 2000s is also lacking. In its last meeting on July 12, the African Union — its authority already undermined by swaggering coup leaders in Mali, Niger, Burkina Faso and other nations experiencing democratic backsliding — failed to even place the Great Lakes crisis on its agenda.
Attempts to strike a new peace deal have floundered. On July 27, Tshisekedi told a meeting in Paris: "There are two processes. There was the Nairobi Process driven by Uhuru Kenyatta which, unfortunately, was subsequently managed by the new president William Ruto. He managed it very badly. The process is almost dead."
The second initiative, the Luanda Process led by Angolan President Joao Lourenco, has made little headway after a disastrous meeting in February.
What now? At the request of the U.S., the belligerents have been observing a humanitarian truce for nearly a month, but clashes have continued. This truce should be used by international leaders — U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken has admirably been heavily involved with Lourenco — to encourage Tshisekedi and Kagame to dial down the rhetoric and come to the table.
China, which has sold arms to both sides this year and is the dominant foreign economic player in Congo’s mining sector, should do the same. Switzerland and the United Arab Emirates (both of which have mining interests in Congo) should also be acting. Crucially, other regional leaders such as South Africa, Nigeria and Kenya should be taking a leadership role alongside Angola’s president to avert a deterioration and assert Africa’s interests.
With 7.2 million people in the region already displaced by the war — 700,000 of them in just the first three months of this year — a further escalation would spell disaster for the continent.
Jt