Billet
Billet price in
Iran domestic market rose under the influence of supply restrictions and higher
ex-rate, from USD 562/mt to USD 573/mt, but the market stagnation and lower exchange
rate stopped its increase and finished the week at USD 570/mt ex-work including
VAT.
Long
Products
Rebar price increased
with upward ex-rate and the sale of almost 100 % of the billet offered at IME,
but it calmed down by end of the week. Its average price changed from USD 652/mt
to USD 660/mt.
Market sentiment improved and made I-beam price
change after some fluctuations from USD 689/mt to USD 702/mt.
Flat
Products
HRC 2 mm
thickness ex-work Mobarakeh was USD 980/mt on last Sunday, which reached USD 1004
/mt by Wednesday. Like other products, this item price also went
up, but fell back on the weekend.
Oxin co HRP market was quiet, as soon as prices
increased, more offers became available and did not allow the price to continue
the upward trend. Its price changed from USD 850/mt to USD
852/mt by end of the week.
With the fluctuation of the currency rate, CRC
price also had ups and downs. Imported cargos do not allow this product market
to move. Its average price changed from USD 1143/mt to USD 1171/mt.
With higher ex-rate and the increase in the
price of HRC, HDG was also upward from USD 1136/mt to USD 1165/mt ex-work
including VAT by end of the week.
Weekly
Analysis:
In the world market:
Global markets are still stable with limited
fluctuation range, conditions do not seem to change seriously. The property market situation in China will
not improve, as the number of empty houses in China is estimated at nearly
three billion people. Oil price is in the range of USD 85-93 /Barrel,
despite the decrease in the inventory of USA warehouses and approaching cold
season. Scrap has not changed seriously and has
maintained the range of USD370/mt, as Billet is also in the area of USD 470 /mt
fob Black Sea. The only factor that can disrupt everything is
the issue of Israel- Hamas war crisis in Gaza. If Hezbollah enter to the war, future
of the region will not be clear. What is certain is that the structure of the
Arab countries will change with this shock. The history of the region says that the story
has entered another stage. Experience has shown that every time the region
becomes rich, something new happens.
In
the domestic market:
The problem of liquidity
affects everyone, from small to large market participants. The government's
policy since the beginning of the year has brought the recession to its peak
and caused the market leaders also to seek to buy raw materials such as pellets
from the market with a 180-day letter of credit. Compared to the first six
months of the previous year, first year half export statistics show a sharp
increase in the export of DRI and pellet, although these statistics may not
include all exports.
On the other hand, mills
like Khuzestan Steel and South Kaveh steel co have not started their export
activities seriously yet. The stagnation of the finished products market
provides the necessary ground for the export of minerals and semi-finished
steel, the effect of which will be felt in the domestic market in the next two
months.
The stability of the exchange rate helps calm
the market, but what can change the situation is the war between Hamas and
Israel. If this war spreads, the currency price and market conditions will be
completely different in Iran and perhaps unpredictable. What has not been seen
in the news and analysis is the role of Russia and its impact in the Ukraine
war!!!
CBI average
ex-rate for Steel Products (SANA): Rials 371,304 / 1USD
16 Oct 2023
M.Chitsaz
Iran Steel News
Bulletin
IFNAA.IR
IRSTEEL.COM