Billet
Billet price had a limited downward trend due to weak
demand and world market downward trend from USD 552/mt to USD 552. It is not out of
mind to expect a further decrease due to world market trend and lower DRI
price.
Long Products
A limited decline in rebar price was normal. Export and domestic
markets have weak demand and global prices are also declining.
Therefore, its average price was down from USD 647/mt to USD 646/mt ex-work
including VAT.
I-beam was faced with inflationary
expectations and higher ex-rate also helped it to improve from USD 660/mt to
USD 682/mt by end of the week.
Flat Products
HRC market was downward due to limited
demand level and HRC 2 mm thickness dropped from USD 845/mt to USD 841/mt
ex-work including VAT.
Lower demand and the competition of suppliers
made HRP average price decline from USD 897/mt to USD 863/mt.
CRC market is in the season dampness because
its consumers are on summer Holidays. Its average price changed from USD
1168/mt to USD 1139/mt.
HDG price decreased due to lower HRC price and
lack of demand from USD 1173/mt to USD 1136/mt.
Weekly Analysis:
In the world market:
The global market has not yet woken up. Competition of the
Russians and condition of Chinese market, which is still in recession, have
fueled the downward trend in prices, but this trend is close to its bottom. The following chart
prepared from January 2019 shows that the average price of billet in the last 5
years with the ups and downs of pandemy and the Ukraine war issue was USD504/mt,
and the price gap between scrap and billet is about USD100/mt, which is
maintained in every ups and downs. In the current
situation, scrap is close to its floor of USD300/mt and billet to at least USD415/mt. Only in the
situation of pandemy, when the markets were closed, scrap price had reached
below USD 300/mt cfr Turkey. It can be concluded
that billet and scrap markets have a limited space for further reductions. We should wait for
the end of summer Holidays in Europe and
USA to see the new markets condition. Chinese efforts to
boost the market will play a decisive role in the next month. A basic factor that
does not allow billet price to fall further is the relationship between the
price of billet and crude oil, considering that billet should stop in the range
of USD415 – 430/mt Fob Black Sea.
In the domestic market:
The domestic market had a downward trend under
the influence of two basic factors. First, the stoppage
of demand due to the Moharram Mourning Holidays, and secondly, expectation of
lower prices due to the drop in global prices.
The coming months will witness many events,
especially the fact that the membership of the Shanghai Pact will force the
government to exercise more serious fiscal discipline.
CBI average ex-rate for Steel Products
(SANA): Rials 372,118/ 1USD
31 July 2023
M.Chitsaz
Iran Steel News Bulletin
IFNAA.IR