New York
(CNN Business)The simple laws of economics threaten to doom America's
remaining coal power plants.
Wind and solar costs have plunged so rapidly that 74% of the US coal fleet could be
phased out for renewable energy -- and still save customers money, according to
a report released on Monday by Energy Innovation, a nonpartisan
think tank.
That figure of at-risk
coal plants in the United States rises to 86% by 2025 as solar and wind costs
continue to plunge.
The research demonstrates
how it's increasingly more expensive to operate existing coal plants than build
clean energy alternatives.
"US coal plants are
in more danger than ever before," Mike O'Boyle, director of electricity
policy at Energy Innovation, told CNN Business. "Nearly three-quarters of
US coal plants are already 'zombie coal,' or the walking dead."
That's despite President
Donald Trump's promise to revive the beleaguered coal industry. Trump declared
the end of the "war on coal" and slashed regulations that clamped
down on the emissions from coal-fired power plants.
Late last year, the administration announced plans to reverse an Obama-era coal emissions rule to make it easier
to open new coal plants. Trump even appointed Andrew Wheeler, a former coal lobbyist, to lead the EPA.
"Trump administration efforts to cut environmental
regulations are too little, too late to save coal," O'Boyle said.
Rust
Belt coal plants under siege
The Energy Innovation report found that in 2018, 211
gigawatts of existing US coal capacity -- or 74% of America's fleet -- was at
risk from local wind or solar that could more cheaply churn out just as much
electricity.
North Carolina, Florida, Georgia and Texas are the US
states that have the greatest amount of coal plants at risk from local solar
and wind, the analysis found. Energy Innovation defined local as within 35
miles.
By 2025, Midwestern states including Indiana, Michigan,
Ohio and Wisconsin are expected to have high amounts of coal capacity under
pressure from renewable energy.
Of course, just because it may be economically feasible to
shut down a coal plant and replace it with wind or solar, doesn't mean it will
happen right away. State regulators must sign off on such decisions. And many
power plants will decide to pass the extra costs on to customers.
Moreover, coal is still a major employer in parts of
Appalachia, making any shutdown potentially damaging to the local economy.
Coal
has been dethroned
Coal was the longtime king of the power industry before it
encountered fierce competition last decade from natural gas. Not only is
natural gas a cleaner burning fossil fuel, but it's in abundance in the United
States thanks to the shale revolution. In 2016, natural gas surpassed coal for
the first time as America's leading power source.
Meanwhile, the share of total power generation from
coal-fired power plants plunged from 48% in 2008 to just 28% last year,
according to government statistics.
And the rise of renewables means that the economics have
once again swung against coal. Aided by a surge of investment in clean energy,
solar prices have plummeted 90% since 2009 -- and they're projected to continue
declining, according to Energy Innovation.
Against that backdrop, renewable energy is projected to be
the fastest-growing source of US electricity generation for at least the next
two years, according to a January report published by the US Energy Information
Administration.
Utility-scale solar power is expected to increase by 10%
in 2019 alone, while wind power is expected to vault ahead of hydropower for
the first time, the EIA said.
"Coal's biggest threat is now economics, not
regulations," O'Boyle said.
New
Mexico pledges to go carbon free
Another challenge for coal: American households and
businesses are increasingly clamoring for clean energy as they worry about
climate change.
Households and businesses are installing their own solar
panels. Small-scape solar generating capacity is expected to grow by 44% over
the next two years, according to the EIA.
Pressured by voters, US states are adopting ambitious
clean energy targets -- and they're framing them as job creators.
Last week, New Mexico Governor Michelle Lujan Grisham
signed into law a bold plan that aims to source half the state's power from
renewable energy by 2030. And by 2045, New Mexico plans to be 100% carbon-free.
Future generations "will benefit from both a cleaner
environment and a more robust energy economy with exciting career and job
opportunities," Lujan Grisham said in a statement.
California and Hawaii also recently passed 100% clean
energy targets.
Some power companies are moving rapidly to adjust to this
new environment.
Xcel Energy (XEL),
a Minneapolis-based power company that serves western and Midwestern states,
recently pledged to deliver 100% carbon-free electricity by 2050. The plan
calls for doubling Xcel's wind power while slashing its dependence on coal.
All signs point to more and more power companies waking up
to the new clean energy reality.