/Rusmet.ru, Victor Tarnavskiy/ The increase of global scrap prices which continued during March, changed to the decrease in April. In East Asia the price of the US HMS № 1, which reached $460-480 per ton CFR in the beginning of the month incase of bulk shipments decreased to less than $440 per ton CFR. Scrap in containers can decrease soon to less than $400 per ton CFR in Taiwan, according to the local consumers. The decrease in Turkey does not look much bigger. Last week some traders offered West European and Romanian scrap at $400 per ton CFR and less; the supplies of the US HMS № 1&2 are provided in recent days at about $420 per ton CFR against more than $460 per ton two weeks ago.
The decrease touched the exporting countries as well. In the USA domestic prices for main kinds of scrap decreased by $20-40 per ton as compared with the first half of April. According to the market participants this trend will keep in early May. In Europe scrap prices fell by 30-60 euro per ton. In particular, HMS № 1, which reached 325-345 euro per ton in the southern Europe in early April, now are less than 300 euro per ton. The supply, increased due to the weather conditions improvement, exceeds the demand that fell in recent two or three weeks.
However, by all appearances, the decrease in scrap market is temporary. It was caused by Turkish companies which almost stopped raw materials purchases in early April. The stockpiles collected before allow Turkish consumers to keep for another three or four weeks, during which they will not express any activity. This is their traditional way of the speculation for a fall in scrap market. Besides, Turkish metallurgists now very much need raw materials prices decrease due to rebar prices fall in Turkey itself and in Middle East countries.
In East Asia the main input into the prices weakening was provided by China, which imported minimal volumes of scrap in March and April, considering this material too expensive. The majority of the consumers from other countries of the region turned to the waiting policy, counting on further scrap prices decrease.
Thus, the decrease of the quotations in the local scrap market is determined by the short-term factors. At the same time the situation in general remains positive for the suppliers. In particular, the US and European traders notice that the collecting of scrap, especially industrial, is lower than before the crisis. Current excess of supply is caused by the termination or even stop of the purchases by the majority of consumers in the USA, Europe, Turkey, and China. The activation of any of these regions will turn the prices back at once.
By the way, in Japan in the Q1 of 2010 steel output was up 60% on 2009; scrap prices, which increased 50% since the beginning of the year, are not going to decrease. Moreover, in the second half of April some companies announced the increase of buying prices, that have reached $410-430 per ton including delivery. Japanese exporters offer H2 material to Korea at $435-440 per ton CFR.
Besides, other kinds of metallurgical raw materials will also affect the scrap market. Coking coal prices increased in April 55%, iron ore - 85-100%. In the Q3 the prices for these materials can increase again. In this situation some European integrated companies announced that they would increase scrap share in charge, substituting more expensive materials by scrap. By all appearances similar tendencies already exist in Japan.
Certainly, the increase in scrap market, as earlier, will be limited by rebar prices. However, the movements of scrap prices will be upward in the nearest several months.