According to Mr Wang Hongwei director of Metallurgical Economic Research & Development Center, predicted that this year crude steel apparent consumption would exceed 600 million tonnes and the net export of steel would be more than that of 2009, however less than that of 2008.
He said in the macro economy and steel seminar jointly held by Wuhan Meierya Futures Co Ltd and www.steelinfo.com that steel price might be pushed up in theory due to the apparent consumption and the improving net import.
Mr Wang noted steel demand would increase obviously amid China economic revitalization; the state’s policy of developing low carbon economy and the price skyrocket of raw materials would lead to the increase in steel production cost, the policies on eliminating obsolete capacity, containing new capacity and fastening the industrial admittance would work on the price rise of steels too. But when the country sees the end of the revitalization period, steel demand might appear weak growth and steel price fluctuation would be reduced, as the policies take effect.
A source from www.steelinfo.com said that it’s definite that the upward trend of steel price wouldn’t change in Q2. But market would be afraid of the height, when steel price rise gradually blew up the profit margin. The risk of price dump would be larger as long as the state decided to raise interest or tighten the credit.
Mr Wang Changsong GM of Meierya Futures suggested steel producers, traders and consumers to make use of steel futures to seek the maximum profit.