March often is a “hot” month in scrap market. The stockpiles decreased in winter till the lowest, the weather is not good enough yet for the collecting volumes increase, and metallurgical plants are increasing outputs counting on spring rally and are ready to pay much for raw materials.
At first sight the current situation in global scrap market has all these characteristics. There is scrap shortage now, and the demand increase from the US, East Asian and Turkish metallurgists simultaneously spurred the prices boost to the almost highest level in recent 1.5 years. The quotations for Western HMS № 1 scrap in East Asian countries increased in the beginning of March to $400 per ton CFR, and Turkish steel manufacturers have to buy similar scrap at $380 per ton CFR and more.
Due to scrap price increase the rally in semis market began. Domestic prices for semi products in Turkey exceeded $500 per ton EXW without VAT, and Russian and Ukrainian traders increased their prices to $490-500 per ton FOB. Rebar manufacturers had to raise their quotations as well. Rebar prices in Turkish market increased to $540-550 per ton EXW.
However, current increase of scrap, semis, and rebar prices in Middle East do not have a substantial part. There is no spring demand rally for construction steel in the region yet. In principle, in some countries long products consumption is at high level. The crisis has not affected the North Africa construction sector. The highest construction growth was in Egypt, where the government finances the infrastructure projects, as a part of the stimulating program, and the banks provide loans for residential development. Due to its sizes and big population (by regional standards) Saudi Arabia has high demand for rebar. Large scale restoration works are held in Iraq.
Construction steel consumption in these countries is likely to exceed the before-crisis level. However, the problem is that in the region this growth does not cover the fall in UAE construction sector. UAE can not count on the recovery in the nearest future. Middle East keeps the status of the large net-importer of steel, in particular, rebar. However, the scale of this net-importer is substantially lower than in the before-crisis times. As the result, the supply excess can be seen in the region today.
That is why most consumers faced Turkish initiative on the prices increase very carefully. Earlier the prices for Turkish rebar used to increase due to scrap prices boosts and then returned back. Last time it happened in Feb. 2010. In a couple of weeks scrap prices will start decreasing again influenced, at least, by the seasonal factors. Besides, in the most Middle East countries domestic rebar prices increased to a small extent last time.
Nevertheless, rebar manufacturers have some chances for a new increase. First of all, Turkish metallurgists have nowhere to step back. Scrap and semis prices increased to the higher extent than rebar. It is possible to assume that rebar export quotations will exceed $550 per ton FOB very soon. Thus, the metallurgists will receive more space to retreat.
Seasonal factor will play in favor of the manufacturers. Whatever low it is, the construction steel demand is growing all over the Mediterranean and the Gulf region. At that many traders decreased their stockpiles in winter and they will have to start to refill them.
Finally, Far East long products market is back to life. The prices for scrap, semis, and rebar in this region are higher than in Middle East. The difference is about $30 per ton (scrap) and more than $70 (rebar), which makes this market attractive for the suppliers from Turkey and CIS. In particular, Vietnam is a big buyer of Russian semis, and Singapore and Thailand in Jan.-Feb. were in top-ten importers of Turkish steel. Besides, Turkish companies increase rebar and wire rod supplies to the USA.
Certainly, the current increase in Middle East long products market will be short and unstable, since it is not supported by real increase of finished products demand. However, when the time for a new fall comes, the prices will decrease to the less extent, as compared with the second half of Feb.