The World Steel Association said on that European steel demand will bounce some 20% in 2010 as the global industry recovers, but much of the West's business has been irrevocably lost to the East.
Mr Ian Christmas Director General of worldsteel said the outlook for the world steel industry was brightening and the association would likely nudge its global demand growth forecast to around 10% from 9%, due to the improving global economy.
He told Reuters in an interview that “The industry is in a positive mood. But still cautious about the recovery.”
Global steel demand in 2010 would return to 2008 levels, but that demand in "old industrialized countries" this year would only be half way back to 2007 levels. He said “China will continue to grow around 10% and you'll find double digit increases in demand in the old industrialized countries.”
He told “Europe has permanently lost some businesses to other parts of the world and it will never come back. The emerging economies are putting on steam and therefore we've seen a permanent shift in the dynamics of our industry.”
He said demand could grow 27% in Germany and 30% in France in 2010 as Europe's major economies recover. But he added the crisis had done permanent damage to the Western steel industry as business thrived in fast growing Eastern economies like China and India.
Mr Christmas added that restarts of blast furnaces across Europe signaled a return of confidence in the industry, but that there were also concerns about too much production being restarted prematurely.
Mr Christmas said BRIC countries, Brazil, Russia, India and China, will account for some 60% of the global steel demand this year, compared to 58% in 2009 and 50% in 2008.
He said “Further growth in China and India would be domestically driven. Rising income levels in these countries will drive domestic consumption, therefore the engine of growth is no longer in the old world, it is now permanently switching to the new world.”
He added that the autos sector was going to be key to the industry's recovery. He said “Automotives clearly are going to be a positive dynamic in China and India. There was more uncertainty about where disposable income would go in the West. Improving Western auto sales in 2009 may have been the result of government backed scrappage schemes encouraging people to bring forward sales that would otherwise have occurred in 2010.”
But he attributed rising car sales in China and India to real demand.