Dec. 18 (Bloomberg) -- China, the world’s largest steelmaker, faces a shortage of coking coal that may drive imports next year and spur a fight for resources with Japanese and South Korean mills, two Chinese industry groups said.
“Domestic demand for coking coal will rise moderately next year, while global demand may gain faster, intensifying competition,” Wu Chenghou, senior adviser of the China Coal Transportation and Distribution Association, said in an interview.
China’s coking coal imports rose 12-fold this year, boosting sales of BHP Billiton Ltd. as the government closed smaller, unsafe mines. Prices may jump by between 23 percent and 38 percent in 2010, as global demand rebounds from the deepest recession since the 1930s, according to Macquarie Securities Group, JPMorgan Chase & Co. and Morgan Stanley.
“China doesn’t have enough domestic supply to meet increasing demand from its steelmakers,” said Zhang Bochun, secretary general of the Hebei Coking & Chemical Industry Association. Mills would “compete with foreign rivals,” he said in an interview.
Chinese imports in 2010 may be similar to this year, Zhang said. Hebei province buys the most coking coal in China, according to industry researcher Mysteel.com. The nation’s $586 billion stimulus spending is spurring automakers and property developers to buy more steel, leading Baoshan Iron & Steel Co. and Chinese mills to expand coal consumption to feed furnaces.
Melbourne-based BHP gained 1.2 percent to 1,885.5 pence in London trading as of 9:37 a.m. local time.
Intense Competition
Import demand by China, the world’s biggest coking coal buyer after Japan, may rise 5.6 percent to 38 million metric tons next year from an expected 36 million tons this year, Macquarie analysts led by Jim Lennon said in a Dec. 15 report. Domestic coal prices in the nation may increase 14 percent next year, Citigroup Inc. said in a Dec. 4 report.
Japan’s purchases may jump 14 percent to 58 million tons, and South Korea’s demand may rise 17 percent to 21 million tons next year, Macquarie said.
“BHP and other suppliers may add exports to Japan and South Korea because demand is picking up there,” said Zhang Weifang, a Shanghai-based analyst of Mysteel.com. “The Chinese would probably have to pay higher spot prices, compared to their foreign rivals who would pay lower contract prices.”
China would be demanding more high quality hard-coking coal in the future as it expands mills, BHP Billiton said in a September slide presentation. The nation this year “emerged” to fill a demand gap for coking coal, the world’s largest mining company said.
Baosteel, JFE
JFE Steel Corp., Japan’s second-largest producer, will invest 50 billion yen ($555 million) in an Australian coal mine owned by QCoal Pty, its biggest investment in coal, Akira Suzuki, general manager of the raw materials department, said yesterday.
Baosteel Group Corp., China’s biggest mill, in October won regulatory approval from Australia to buy a 15 percent stake in Aquila Resources Ltd. for A$285 million ($253 million). Baosteel may ask a Chinese partner to help with the development of coal resources at Aquila, Chairman Xu Lejiang said Dec. 3.
The Chinese government started closing small coal mines in 2008 to improve their safety records after 3,770 workers were killed in 2007, making the mines the world’s deadliest. China produced 705.1 million tons of coking coal last year, according to Beijing Antaike Information Development Co.
Congestion
Congestion on railways is also boosting imports by steelmakers which have furnaces near ports, said Mysteel’s Zhang.
These mills may get 20,000 tons to 30,000 tons of coal monthly by railway, she said. A ship can carry 70,000 tons, and take just half a month from Australia to China, she said.
Benchmark contract prices may surge to $180 a ton from $129 a ton, Macquarie forecast. JPMorgan and Morgan Stanley expect prices to jump to $160 a ton.
Steel demand growth in China will outpace supply in 2010, Deutsche Bank AG said Dec. 11. Steel output may exceed 600 million tons next year, after reaching a record 570 million tons this year, the China Securities Journal reported Dec. 17, citing Ma Guoqiang, general manager of Baoshan Steel Co., the nation’s largest steelmaker.