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Exporters keep benefiting from CIS billet short supply – 09 Aug 11

Buying activity is still sluggish in the CIS export billet market. Nevertheless, suppliers keep trying to push through an increase, referring to supply squeeze. In particular, producers at Azov-Black Sea ports continue raising prices for September production of billet. At the same time a number of Russian suppliers in the Far East have not sold out August production yet, as they fear to sell at a low price amid rising billet and finished product quotations in the region. Situation in the Caspian region remains vague: amid low bidding prices from Iranian buyers, few CIS suppliers present in the market are in no hurry to close their August order books, planning to make use of the situation soon.

Market players report this week sellers in Azov-Black Sea region have received inquiries from Egyptian customers. In Syria demand for the product has slackened due to increased import duty on CIS billet (4.5%) and poor buying activity in the longs market. In this situation, local re-rollers will rather prefer Turkish billet, delivery terms and prices for which look more attractive. Besides, prices for finished products have started sliding in Turkey, so the trend may spread to export quotations of Turkish material and ruin optimistic plans of CIS exporters.

At present few producers are offering September casting – Electrostal, Metinvest International S.A., BMZ, while export offers of semis are moving up gradually, having increased by $5-15/t in the past week, to $680-700/t FOB.

In particular, Electrostal, which closed deals for small volume of September output last week (about 5,000-7,000 t) at $675/t FOB Mariupol, currently insists on $680/t FOB Mariupol. Moreover, market participants think prices for the products may grow by $5-10/t again. The increase will probably be attributed to scheduled 7-10-day maintenance in early September, which will lead to a drop in production, to about 20,000 t.

BMZ has also entered the market in early August with offers of September square billet, having increased initial prices by $24/t compared to deals for August casting. Thus, the above products are priced at $699/t FOB Black Sea, with shipment from the mill by October 10, with 100% pre-payment. Yet, market players doubt the supplier will sell the material at the above levels; moreover, taking into account the long delivery time, the producer will have to discount $15/t to attract buyers. Metal Expert learns that bids from steel traders came at $670-680/t FOB Black Sea in the first days of August, but have been rejected by the supplier.

Also, Metinvest International SA is reportedly offering September production of 125-130 mm square billet from Yenakievo SW at $685/t FOB Mariupol, by $10-20/t higher than the latest sales of August products. In particular, to Syria the material is available at $705-710/t C&F. Quotations of 150 mm semis are cheaper by $10/t.

Furthermore, Novorosmetall has reportedly signed a deal for square billet to be shipped before August 10 at $700/t FOB Black Sea.
       
IUD is planning to resume billet production at Alchevsk SW shortly due to continuing repairs at Dzerzhinsky. The seller has reportedly sold the entire September output of Alchevsk (40,000-50,000 t) at $685/t FOB in the first days of the month and is sitting out of market now. The company is to allocate some 100,000-120,000 t of billet for exports in October.
       
Metalloinvest sold the whole August production of square billet from OEMK (5,000 t) at $685/t FOB a week before and is making no offers of September casting yet (about 5,000 t).

REMZ and Volga-FEST owned by Mechel still do not offer square billet to overseas buyers because of a forced stoppage of steelmaking equipment about two weeks ago.
       
In the Caspian region, supply of CIS billet is also thin. Considering soft demand for long steel in Iranian market, local buyers are still unready to accept suppliers’ offers, even despite some concessions. Thus, Kazakhstan’s Casting, who offered August casting of square billet at $645-652/t CPT (about $655-660/t FOB) Aktau at the end of July, has sold most of the tonnages at $635-645/t CPT ($645-653 FOB) Aktau. Moreover, market sources report the supplier is ready to give a $5/t discount to some buyers. Nevertheless, according to a company representative, the producer is not in a hurry to sell the entire August output still hoping to make profits given that there are no alternative offers in the market. In case of adverse market situation, the supplier is even ready to move August volumes to September.
       
In the Far East, CIS exporters have also decided to leave the market in order to study the situation. On the back of soaring quotations of finished products in Thailand, Philippines, China and those of square billet in Vietnam, suppliers are probably taking a break before raising prices to this region. In particular, another tender of Amurmetall for August casting has not been issued, while EvrazHolding sold out August output back in mid-July and is not offering September production so far. Market sources say buyers in SE Asia are ready to book square billet at $680-690/t C&F. The latest deals for Vietnamese material were settled at $690/t C&F.
( Source: www.metalexpert-group.com )
Aug 9, 2011 16:02
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