Q3 is likely to be eventful with turnaround towards mid to end August in Middle East as the market returns to work after the Ramadan.
With Q1 and Q2 being a washout the stock levels are running low or at minimum levels with the stockiest end users in these markets.
With the economic activity not likely to pick up significantly in these markets there is likely to be a slump in buying after the initial flurry say by early October following which it will pick up once again in Nov and December as the year draws to close and winter vacation sets in .
MENA nations in the aftermath of the political turmoil will hopefully settle to do business after the Ramadan and start buying. Egypt and Iran are need particularly attention as they are major consumer of semis and rebars but have been lying low for some time. At the same time countries like Saudi Arab which has been chugging along at an even pace in infrastructure and construction activity will chip in.
Turkish Mills are positive about Q3 reflected in aggressive scrap buying recently pulling the prices by USD 20 per tonne to USD 30 per tonne about to touch USD 500 per tonne levels soon. This will have a cascading effect on the finished steel and it already reported that they have jacked flat and long prices by about USD 20 per tonne.
( Source: www.steelguru.com )