Mr Wei Jianguo secretary general of China Center for International Economic Exchange said that this years'' foreign trade situation is not promising, the growth rate of China''s export may slide to single digit levels.
European Union''s economic downturn is the main reason that Mr Wei Jianguo made the above prediction. According to him, European Community countries’ slow economic revival as well as the weak demand will impose great influence on China’s export.
Moreover, the continuous price hike of raw material cost, strong yuan appreciation expectation and squeezed profit margins for foreign trade enterprises, all these factors result in the slowdown of China''s export growth rate, along with the cautious attitude by foreign trade companies towards export orders.
He said that "For the middle and small scale foreign trade companies, their profit margins are usually at 3% to 5%, therefore, the more complicated global situations are, the more cautious they are towards orders."
However, China''s import growth rate is expected to maintain high growth. Under its strategy to expand import, China'' import growth rate is predicted to be above double digit levels, which keeps total volume of import and export at double digit levels on a whole.
Slow export and fast import will further cut China''s trade surplus. Wei Jianguo predicted that despite trade deficit in very few months, China will see trade surplus over the course of the year.
He said that "It is expected that trade surplus all year round will reach between USD 50 billion and USD 100 billion."
Under the joint effects of continuous increase of domestic demand, policy support for expanding import and commodity price boom in international market, import is expected to continue growing faster than export, which will further improve trade balance.
( source: www.steelguru.com )